Can Brazil get to 125 GW of solar installations by 2050?

An ambitious estimate proposed by market analysts is energizing businesses in the Brazilian solar sector.

"Brazil is a rapidly growing gigawatt market," said Rodrigo Lopes Sauaia, CEO of the Brazilian Solar Photovoltaic Association (ABSOLAR) in a webinar examining the prospects for PV in region. The event – “Latin America outlook for PV: Investment opportunities for solar energy in post COVID-19 scenarios” – was organized by the Global Solar Council in collaboration with Energia Estratégica and provided expert perspectives on important emerging markets (Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Mexico).

Using data from the last three and a half years, the head of ABSOLAR said that although solar energy now occupies only 1.6% of the Brazilian power market mix, the market development highlights the rapid penetration of this generation technology.

The chart showing the evolution of the installed solar capacity in Brazil clearly shows that this market today is attractive both for developing the small-scale distributed generation segment and large-scale power plants.

"If this seems like a good start, it is not even close to our full potential," said Rodrigo Lopes Sauaia.

According to ABSOLAR's outlook, market analysts predict that solar energy could become Brazil's number one electricity source by 2040 or 2050.

"As you can see from BNEF’s estimates, approximately 38% of the total installation capacity in Brazil may come from solar energy by 2050," Rodrigo Lopes Sauaia explained. "Therefore, we will grow from 1.6% - less than 2% - to almost 40% of the total installed capacity in the country. This is a great opportunity for Brazil to grow."

To get the full ABSOLAR analysis and hear Lopes Sauaia’s commentary of getting Brazil to 125 GW by 2050, access the webinar slides and recording here.